The champions have conceded the same number of goals in their past three Premier League games as they did in their first 11 outings. What went wrong?

Pep Guardiola is often regarded as the world’s most admired coach, thanks to the spellbinding, offensive football his teams have played over the years, from Barcelona to Bayern Munich to Manchester City. His exhilarating brand, however, has always been built on a sturdy defensive foundation. Guardiola’s teams have only had the league’s worst defensive record three times in his 14 full seasons as a head coach.

The Catalan idolizes Johan Cruyff, who famously stated that if you hold the ball, the opponent cannot score. Despite all of the magnificent football he has watched, the coach has always been preoccupied with taming the opposition. Above all, he has prioritized control of the game.

But, for the time being, Guardiola’s team appears to be capable of doing everything except controlling games. His squad continues to play exciting football, but they have lost how to defend.

City have surrendered eight goals in their previous three Premier League games (drawing 4-4 at Chelsea, 1-1 at Liverpool, and 3-3 at Tottenham), matching their total from the first 11 games of the season. And, if you include their 3-2 win over RB Leipzig in the Champions League, they have conceded a whopping ten goals in their last four games.

So, what happened to Guardiola’s stalwart defense? GOAL conducts an investigation…

Gundogan’s exit and Rodri’s reliance

Ilkay Gundogan was practically the ideal midfielder. With his deft touches and passing, he was able to dominate the pace of a game and establish his own control over it. He was also more than capable of scoring vital goals, stepping up in crucial times such as the final day of the 2021-22 season or last season’s FA Cup final.

The departure of the German to Barcelona left City with a massive void that could never be filled totally, but they brought in Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes to replace some of the gaps. Unfortunately, the new recruits have been plagued by injuries, with only 12 starts in all competitions between them.

The absences of the pair, combined with John Stones’ extended absences, has put too much weight on Rodri to lead City. The Spaniard has done an admirable job, and the squad would be adrift without him, but he has struggled to give the team the same kind of control that they had last season.

Stones’ injury woes

Last season, Guardiola’s most significant tactical change was to reimagine Stones as a holding midfielder, allowing the defender to move forward when City was in possession. He had tried Rico Lewis in the role before deciding that Stones was better suited to it.

As a result, City had more possession and control, as Stones was able to slow the pace down when needed or step it up when needed, assisting his team in breaking the press with his renowned ball carrying talents.

However, the former Everton man has been out for the duration of the season due to injury, depriving Guardiola of his perfect link-man between defense and midfield. Stones suffered a hip muscle injury during the Community Shield and missed the first two months of the season. He only played three and a half games before suffering another injury against Young Boys and is yet to return.

In Stones’ absence, Guardiola has largely used Manuel Akanji in the role, and he has had some success, particularly against Liverpool, where City controlled most of the game but failed to kill off Jurgen Klopp’s side, allowing Trent Alexander-Arnold to equalize with a late howitzer.

However, the Swiss’ limitations in comparison to Stones’ ability for the role were clearer against Tottenham, particularly in the second half. The good news is that ‘the Barnsley Beckenbauer’ is due to return soon and could play against Aston Villa on Wednesday.

The absence of De Bruyne is significant

City have also been missing Kevin De Bruyne, their captain and talisman for the last eight years, for the entire season, excluding the 20 minutes he played against Burnley before tearing his hamstring.

De Bruyne is better recognized for his attacking threat than his defensive duties, but his absence means City will be without one of their primary focal points on the field. Last season, the Belgian placed second on the squad in progressive ball carries and progressive passes completed, and third in progressive passes received, demonstrating his impact on the club’s overall play beyond the more visible measures of goals and assists.

And if you believe that attacking is the best kind of defense, De Bruyne’s absence explains City’s defensive woes even more. For the Blues, he has 96 goals and 153 assists, and he was just as efficient last year, with 10 goals and 31 assists.

If De Bruyne had been fit and available, it’s easy to envisage City dispatching Liverpool and Tottenham far before their late comebacks, as well as taming the turmoil at Stamford Bridge.

Doku’s electricity creates instability

Jeremy Doku has been one of the most exciting things to happen to City this season, establishing himself quickly in the Premier League. The winger has also immediately won over the Etihad Stadium crowd, who jump to their feet every time he picks up the ball.

Doku has been a revelation for City, who have become a lot more dynamic and unpredictable squad since his arrival. However, the 21-year-old’s exciting dribbles leave City more prone to errors, allowing the opposition to counter-attack when they are out of shape.

He’s also not the best at tracking back or jockeying his marker, and Son Heung-min was able to easily dribble past him and score Tottenham’s first goal on Sunday. When the Belgian is on the field, City appear less balanced and assured than when Jack Grealish is on the left wing.Guardiola, on the other hand, appears to be ready to accept the defensive disadvantage of starting Doku over Grealish for the attacking upside, starting him in the previous three games.

Grealish was one of City’s best players last season, thanks to his willingness to obey Guardiola’s orders, frequently hugging the touchline and slowing play so his teammates could get forward, but he has had his own fitness issues, missing a month with a thigh injury and falling victim to a vomiting bug before the Liverpool game.

Ederson is unable of keeping clean sheets

Ederson is frequently seen as a goalkeeper who is more valuable with his feet than his hands, but his general ability to save shots has meant that his standing as City’s No.1 has seldom been called into doubt.

However, supporters have starting to have reservations about him because he frequently gets beaten with the first decent shot he faces. These concerns began to surface last season, but while City continued to win, the fact that he conceded the occasional goal in an otherwise easy victory went mostly undetected.

However, in the last month, City has been less adept at finishing chances and has conceded more opportunities. Ederson has failed to deliver when City has needed him, keeping only four clean sheets in 13 league games.

His form hasn’t been too alarming, and he hasn’t dropped any clangers – unlike his Manchester United rival Andre Onana on the opposite side of town – but there are a few goals he could have prevented.

He was too slow to react to Thiago Silva’s header against Chelsea, and later in the game, he parried Conor Gallagher’s shot straight back into the danger zone, where Nicolas Jackson was poised to follow it up. He should have done better with Son’s goal for Tottenham, while his placement for Giovani Lo Celso’s long-range strike was also questioned.

Tough schedules and bad luck

Another explanation for City’s recent defensive woes is that they were just dealt a lousy hand. They have faced three great opponents in the league in rapid succession, as well as a decent enough side in Leipzig in a match that was, in truth, of little importance.

They’ve also had the misfortune of conceding many goals despite allowing few chances. Guardiola’s team has conceded an average of 2.8 shots per game in the Premier League, for a total of 39, yet still managed to score 16 goals. They effectively concede a goal for every 2.4 shots they let the opposition. In other words, their opponents are exceptionally effective in front of goal.

Guardiola attempted to explain this in a press conference following the 3-3 tie with Tottenham. “People say are you are concerned about the goals you concede, yeah of course, but how many chances do we concede?” he asked. “It’s ridiculous, we concede nothing.”

That is not totally correct, as Chelsea had 12 shots versus City in the tense 4-4 tie, whereas Liverpool only had six and scored once. To be fair to Guardiola, Tottenham were more efficient, netting three goals in five attempts.

City may face another difficult test against in-form Villa, where they will be without suspended duo Rodri and Grealish. After that, they have a far more comfortable run of games before the end of 2023, with home games against Crystal Palace and Sheffield United and away games against Luton and Everton. It’s not difficult to envisage City winning all four games and maintaining a clean sheet in each.

City’s current malaise of leaking goals may resolve itself over time, but it is a problem they cannot ignore for the time being. Guardiola, as usual, will devote all of his time and efforts to finding a solution.