Manchester City may be the reigning European and English champions, but their prospects of retaining the Premier League title have taken a significant damage, according to Opta.

Pep Guardiola’s team has hit a rare snag in recent weeks, winning just one in six Premier League games since mid-November. 

A 4-4 thriller against Chelsea launched a sequence of four draws, one defeat, and one triumph for Guardiola’s formerly unstoppable trophy-winning engine.

While City has struggled in the run-up to Christmas, rivals Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa have made the most of their opportunities and are now all ahead of Guardiola’s men in the Premier League rankings.

Opta’s supercomputer gave City a 90.2 percent chance of winning the league again at the start of the season.

Manchester City is given a 39.3 percent chance of winning the Premier League this season, a drop of more than 50% from the start of the season.

Following a 2-2 tie with Crystal Palace, Manchester City has only won one of their last six games.

After the stalemate against Crystal Palace, City have been assigned a 39.3 percent chance of repeating their accomplishment from last season.

The 2-2 draw, which was clinched by a last-minute Michael Olise penalty for the Eagles, reduced their title chances by 8.5%, from 47.7% the week before after a narrow win over Luton. 

After City, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are the most likely to win the Premier League, having pushed the winners all the way last season.

Arsenal’s odds had taken a hit following a defeat to Aston Villa the previous week, with Opta putting their chances at only 16.6 percent.

However, a 2-0 win over Brighton at home on Sunday nearly doubled Arsenal’s chances of ending their 20-year wait for a Premier League title to 29.9%, a 25.8 percent rise from the start of 2023-24.

Arsenal has reclaimed second place from Liverpool, who had taken the lead at the top of the league in the previous matchweek.

Opta obviously saw enough in their 0-0 draw at home against Manchester United to conclude that their credentials were not as strong as previously anticipated, decreasing from 31.5 percent to 23.6 percent, up 20.1% from pre-season.

Jurgen Klopp’s side won the title in 2019-20, but their recent success does not appear to be enough to put them ahead of the Gunners, who have not won the trophy since Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles in 2003-04.

Unsurprisingly, Aston Villa is the fourth-most likely to win it all after Unai Emery’s transformation propelled the club into contention for Champions League football.

According to Opta statistics, Mikel Arteta’s side is second after a win over Brighton.

Liverpool was in second place last week before a 0-0 draw with Manchester United.

Unai Emery of Aston Villa has converted the team he took over just over a year ago into a serious title contender.

The Villans have already beaten Arsenal and Manchester City at home this season, and are one of the league’s most dangerous teams, sitting just one point behind the Gunners in third place, level with Liverpool.

A 2-1 comeback win over Brentford on Sunday appears to have only boosted their case, with Opta increasing their chances from 4.1% to 6.8%, though they still trail the three front-runners. 

Tottenham, fifth on the list, started well but have been battered by injuries and bans in recent weeks, and now have a 0.4% chance of winning their first trophy in 15 years.