Erik ten Hag and Manchester United will be disappointed with the numbers. A year in which they won their first trophy in six years, finished third in the Premier League, and reached the FA Cup final turned out to be one of the worst on record.

Erik ten Hag is under increasing scrutiny at United.

With 21 defeats, 2023 is the fourth worst calendar year in United history in terms of games lost. They’ve dropped 14 games this season before the new year, which hasn’t happened since 1930/31.

There’s no getting around how bad these figures are, and Ten Hag should consider himself lucky to still have a job. He is certainly a benefactor of United’s drift this year, with the Glazers mulling over the club’s future for the majority of 2023 until settling on a minority investment from Sir Jim Ratcliffe.

Even now, there is a perception that the club is lacking in leadership. Sir Dave Brailsford, INEOS’s head of sport, has commenced work on an assessment of the football operations. United presently has an interim CEO in Patrick Stewart and a football director in John Murtough, who is expected to have his power limited.

Ten Hag may have had credit in the bank from the previous season, but it is now all but vanished. He is in charge of United’s poorest season since Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure, and if the football system above him had been more stable, he would have been replaced by now. But it’s unclear not just who would make that decision, but also who would manage the hunt for a replacement.

Certainly, the reasons for sticking with Ten Hag are dwindling by the week. Yes, he’s had to deal with a never-ending number of injuries and illnesses this season, but that’s not nearly enough to excuse 14 defeats in 28 games. Not only are the results bad, but so are the performances, and United has regressed tactically this season.

Ten Hag’s results should be compared to those of his predecessors. Jose Mourinho was fired after seven loses in 24 games to begin the season, while Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was fired after seven defeats in 13 games. Even Ralf Rangnick lost only eight of his 31 games as coach.

David Moyes only lost 15 of his 51 games as manager, although his departure seemed imminent for the whole of the 2013/14 season. Ten Hag has accomplished more than Moyes in his one full season in command, but that is becoming a distant memory. Nobody can see anything other than a manager change at some point this season. There have been too many false dawns to trust that a turning point will ever be reached.

There’s an argument that January, with a substantially reduced calendar and only one Premier League game scheduled, is the ideal time for a change, but there doesn’t appear to be much enthusiasm for that. Maybe there’s some logic in stumbling on for the time being, hoping Ten Hag can steady the ship or keep it from sinking.

The first step for INEOS is to finalize the football framework that will operate at Old Trafford. What is the point of allowing an interim CEO and a football director whose authority would be reduced under a future regime to lead a search for a new manager?

If Brailsford and Ratcliffe decide to appoint a sporting director above Murtough, whomever that person is, it would be best to get that person in place before considering a change in the dugout. If, as seems likely, the case for a change remains strong, the hunt for a replacement will be more stable than it is today.

Ten Hag appeared to be United’s answer six months ago. He will still have time to establish himself, but his decline has been swift. That demonstrates how difficult these judgments are, and there are no strong candidates now, as there were in 2022 when Ten Hag and Mauricio Pochettino competed for the post.

That makes any potential all the more significant, and it is for this reason that INEOS will require their structure in place before considering such seismic shift.