As the dust settles after the Christmas show, one clear winner emerges: Manchester City. Not only did the champions win the Club World Championship with two easy wins over Urawa Red Diamonds and Fluminense, but when they returned to England, they discovered that nobody had taken advantage of their absence. With a game in hand, they are five points behind the leaders after victories against Everton and Sheffield United.

Despite the fact that they aren’t at their best, City have won six of their previous seven games in all competitions and won’t face another top-eight team until the Manchester derby on the first weekend of March. Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland, and Jérémy Doku are all expected to return from injury within the next month. It’s possible that the streak of consecutive victories that everyone predicted for them has already begun.

With a 4-2 win over Newcastle United on Monday, Liverpool ensured that the deficit remained at five points. It may seem strange to criticize a team that just set a new record with an xG of 7.27, but it was a game that didn’t end until Mohamed Salah’s 86th-minute penalty, and as such, it fit the Christmas pattern. Although they overcame Burnley 2-0 on Boxing Day, that was a game they should have won much sooner, while they had the better of draws against Arsenal and, especially, Manchester United but were unable to capitalize.

Not only does a lack of ruthlessness in the final third risk losing points, but it also creates a frustration that, for the time being, appears to be manifesting itself, at least among fans, in ludicrous conspiracy theories about refereeing (the soft award of the second penalty, presumably, was Anthony Taylor under deep cover, giving Liverpool a decision in a game they were going to win anyway to cover his tracks).

Aston Villa sit three points behind in second place, a credit to Unai Emery’s outstanding work since taking over, although they struggled to secure seven points from a seemingly simple festive schedule. January, with an FA Cup fixture at Middlesbrough and the winter break, may provide some reprieve, but they have looked noticeably tired since the second half of the win over Arsenal.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have taken just four points from their previous five games after back-to-back defeats to West Ham and Fulham. They aren’t completely out of the race yet, and the residual hope for the rivals is that City face a hard March schedule – United, Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal, and Villa – but it’s impossible not to consider where Arsenal could be in relation to them. They are now level on points despite having played one more game, but even with the defeat at Villa and the draw at Liverpool, wins over West Ham and Fulham would have put them six points ahead of City, the kind of margin that invariably puts pressure on the pursue.

Worse, the way in which the defeats occurred. For the majority of the first half of the season, there was a perception that this Arsenal team was less flashy than previous season’s, but that they were better-equipped for a title challenge due to their depth and improved defensive solidity. The hope was that the midfield will eventually settle and revert to the flow of the first half of last season. Not only has that not occurred, but the front three have collectively lost form, resulting in a general lack of confidence.

In November, Newcastle led the way by doubling up on Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. With the wide players neutralized, it became clear that the center was producing very little innovation. Although Martin degaard’s form has improved in recent weeks, and despite occasional flashes from Kai Havertz, the situation has been exacerbated by the lack of a truly clinical finisher. As many have pointed out, you don’t need a great goalscorer to win the league, but having someone who can burgle something from nothing helps when you’re not playing well as a team.

And the lack of goals puts pressure on the defense, and the truth is that Arsenal hasn’t been particularly good at coping with pressure or adversity since about 2005. Fulham’s winner was aided by sloppy defending from three Arsenal players before Bobby Decordova-Reid poked it across the line. Freak goals occur, but this appears to be a pattern. Nobody accepted responsibility, which has become an unfavorable trait. The shallowness of Arsenal’s squad was clear late last season, but it doesn’t mean they didn’t bottle it to some level.

All of this puts Liverpool in first place, but City looking quite dangerous coming into the second half of the season.