As the dust settles after the Christmas performance, there is only one apparent winner: Manchester City. The winners not only won the Club World Championship with two easy victories over Urawa Red Diamonds and Fluminense, but when they returned to England, they discovered that no one had taken advantage of their absence. They are five points behind the leaders with a game in hand after victories against Everton and Sheffield United.

Despite their lack of form, City have won six of their last seven games in all competitions and will not face another top-eight team until the Manchester derby on the first weekend of March. Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland, and Jérémy Doku are all expected to be back in action within the next month. It’s likely that the winning streak that everyone prophesied for them has already begun.

Liverpool kept the margin at five points with a 4-2 win over Newcastle United on Monday. It may sound funny to criticize a team that just established a new record with an xG of 7.27, but this was a game that didn’t end until Mohamed Salah’s 86th-minute penalty, so it fit the Christmas pattern. Although they defeated Burnley 2-0 on Boxing Day, it was a game they should have won much earlier, and they had the better of draws against Arsenal and, in particular, Manchester United but were unable to capitalize.

A lack of ruthlessness in the final third not only risks losing points, but it also breeds frustration, which appears to be manifesting itself, at least among fans, in ludicrous conspiracy theories about refereeing (the soft award of the second penalty, presumably, was Anthony Taylor under deep cover, giving Liverpool a decision in a game they were going to win anyway to cover his tracks).

Aston Villa are in second place, three points behind, thanks to Unai Emery’s superb performance since taking over, despite struggling to secure seven points from a seemingly straightforward festive schedule. The holiday break and an FA Cup match against Middlesbrough in January may provide some respite, but they have looked significantly jaded since the second half of the win over Arsenal.

Arsenal, on the other hand, has only taken four points from their last five games after losses to West Ham and Fulham. They aren’t out of the race yet, and the opponents’ only hope is that City has a difficult March schedule – United, Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal, and Villa – but it’s tough not to think where Arsenal could be in relation to them. Despite having played one more game, they are currently level on points with City, but victory against West Ham and Fulham would have put them six points ahead of City, the kind of margin that typically puts pressure on the pursuer.

Worst of all, the manner in which the defeats occurred. For the most of the season, it was assumed that this Arsenal team was less flashy than the previous season’s, but that they were better-equipped for a title push due to their depth and improved defensive solidity. The hope was that the midfield would ultimately settle and revert to the rhythm of last season’s opening half. Not only has this not happened, but the front three as a whole have lost form, resulting in a general loss of confidence.

Newcastle led the way in November by doubling up on Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. With the big players out of the way, it became evident that the center was yielding very few new ideas. Despite Martin degaard’s improved form in recent weeks and occasional sparks from Kai Havertz, the situation has been exacerbated by the lack of a truly clinical finisher. As many have pointed out, you don’t need a great striker to win the league, but having someone who can create something out of nothing helps when the rest of the squad is struggling.

And a lack of goals puts strain on the defense, and Arsenal hasn’t been very strong at dealing with pressure or adversity since about 2005. Fulham’s winner was made possible by shoddy defending by three Arsenal players before Bobby Decordova-Reid pushed it home. Freak goals do occur, but it appears that this is a pattern. Nobody took responsibility, which has become a negative trait. The depth of Arsenal’s roster was obvious late last season, but it doesn’t mean they didn’t bottle it to some extent.

All of this leaves Liverpool in first place, but City appears to be a real threat heading into the second half of the season.